Jan 15, 2009

Was it a TRAPPING bounce Or Rising Momentum?

All world markets are in deep red.
DOW down by -2.94%
NASDAQ down by 3.67%
FTSE down by -4.97%
DAX down by -4.635

Asian markets opened in deep red.
Nikkei -3.98%
Hang Seng -4.93%

As expected the rise came after 5 days of falls in NIFTY. However with the earlier experience of seeing nifty closing at the highest point of the day, it looks as deceptive as earlier times to trap all those who boldly took long positions and bought CALLs todwards the end. Most of the asian markets too had a rise but did not rise with the same exuberance as indian markets.

Rise in indices were led by RELIANCE Pack. If you observe RIL, How many times have you seen RIL rising 9% to 10% in a single day? Although Nifty rose by about 100 pts, the voulmes and open interest were much lesser than previous days clearly showning short covering rather, no fresh buying at these counters. Only 90 lakh RIL shares changed hands in the twin exchanges in Mumbai. The delivery volume was also low — 31% and 16% on NSE and BSE, respectively.

So if traders are lucky to find a slight more rise in indices by about 1% to 2% more, then we can boldly short february futures and write higher CALLs of Jan series and hold these shorts for a great gains. Even if nifty does not rise, wait for an intraday bounce to short feb futures to surely see 2500 or lower levels.

SATYAM was trigger for the southwards move, next if any negative Q3 results or news can lead more downwards.

Today TCS Q3 results are expected.
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